2012 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress Shakeup

Shailene Woodley (with George Clooney in The Descendants),

one of three new actresses in my Best Supporting Actress predictions.

It's been a while since I last updated my Oscar predictions, but when I sat down to do so, I realized something: Not much has changed. There are still five or six films out there that no one has seen—J. Edgar, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse, etc. Beyond that, there seems to be a pretty clear shape to the race: The Artist and The Descendants seem locked. Midnight in Paris, The Help, The Ides of March, and others are waiting in the wings for the debuts of these other films. Hard to nail down a number of nominees (thinking it'll be low—six or seven), but for now, I'm listing ten, and the ten I had last month are the ten I'm still going with.

Best Actor, also, has a decently clear hierarchy (at least at this point). I think Clooney is in. Pitt and Dujardin appear really solid. DiCaprio is an unknown, but I've got to think he'll be in. Gary Oldman is the weak one in the lineup, but I'm sticking with him. Michael Fassbender, Woody Harrelson, and Ryan Gosling are on the outside looking in (for Shame, Rampart, and The Ides of March, respectively).

For Best Actress, I've dropped Felicity Jones in favor of Rooney Mara. There's typically that one slot for a younger woman in a smaller film, but Like Crazy is too quiet, and Martha Marcy May Marlene (Elizabeth Olsen's play) might not be an Academy movie. Mara has the advantage of being in a bigger film, as well as the fact that the role was almost a play for Noomi Rapace last year. That, of course, could be a disadvantage to Mara, but in Fincher we trust, right?

Best Supporting Actor is probably the weakest its been in years. So many memorable performances over the last few years, but this year, I'm having a hard time finding five. Plummer and Brooks seem good, but don't stick out like crazy. Nick Nolte would have been gold if Warrior didn't tank. Phillip Seymour Hoffman could be a solid bet, but he'll have some internal competition. So maybe Max Von Sydow, despite being an unknown at this point, is a frontrunner. He's a veteran with a juicy role in what appears to be a major Oscar film.

It's Best Supporting Actress, however, that saw the most changes since the last time. Three new actresses—Jessica Chastain, Judi Dench, and Shailene Woodley. The former is so ubiquitous, I have to think she'll get recognized somewhere. Then there's the Dame, who looks really good in the J. Edgar trailer. Finally, Woodley has already received some very good notices in her role alongside Clooney in The Descendants. They, I expect, will join Vanessa Redgrave and Octavia Spencer, respectively.

What do you think? Am I overestimating the prospects of these mystery films? And what about films like The Tree of Life and Drive—do they have any shot?