Predicting Best Picture has never been so hard. It's not just because we don't know the number of nominations this year, but because so many films that seem to be in contention have one or two pieces missing. There are fewer total packages in 2011. Not a bad thing, but a fair observation, I'd say.
With that said, the number of nominees will likely trend lower. I doubt eight or nine films will get the necessary five percent of first-place votes. As of this week's update, I'm going with seven nominees, though here are the ten films I'd say are in the best position, ordered from most likely to be nominated to least likely:
1.) War Horse
The latest from Spielberg is finally beginning to show, and though most reviews aren't over-the-moon, consensus is this film will be in the hunt right until the end.
2.) The Artist
How far can charm go? That's what Michel Hazavanicius will soon find out. The box office is a big question mark, but everyone who sees it calls it a crowd pleaser through and through. If I was in Vegas, this pony would have my bet.
How far can charm go? That's what Michel Hazavanicius will soon find out. The box office is a big question mark, but everyone who sees it calls it a crowd pleaser through and through. If I was in Vegas, this pony would have my bet.
3.) The Descendants
Another stone-cold lock. The box office and reviews are already there. All the film needs is a little love from the critics groups at the end of the year. That said, having now seen it (review tomorrow), I can't imagine it winning.
4.) The Help
Look, I'm not enamored with Tate Taylor's film as most others are, but I can see a Best Picture nominee when it's right there in front of me with SAG ensemble gold practically bursting from every frame.
5.) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Daldry is three for three, and between the beloved source material and star-studded cast, there's no reason to think he won't be four for four.
6.) Moneyball
The box office seems just solid enough to squeak in there over some of the others on this list. I think it's still vulnerable though, as I'm not sure who exactly is putting it at the top of their ballots. Still, with so many other question marks, I'll call it in.
7.) Hugo
If I had any say in it, Hugo would be a Best Picture nominee for sure. As it stands now, I'm on the fence. On the one hand, it won the NBR's top prize. On the other hand, the NBR means nothing. On the one hand, it's a total charmer and made by a master director. On the other hand, so is Midnight in Paris.
If I had any say in it, Hugo would be a Best Picture nominee for sure. As it stands now, I'm on the fence. On the one hand, it won the NBR's top prize. On the other hand, the NBR means nothing. On the one hand, it's a total charmer and made by a master director. On the other hand, so is Midnight in Paris.
8.) Midnight in Paris
Woody Allen is a favorite of mine and the Academy's. And a lot of people really love this movie, but I'm just lukewarm on its Best Picture chances for two reasons. First, it was an early summer release and could easily get lost in the shuffle. More problematic, however, is the fact that it's competing directly with The Artist (and arguably The Help and Hugo) for the charming, crowd-pleasing slot.
9.) The Ides of March
A few weeks ago, I thought this film was golden. But it came and went far too fast to be any higher on this list.
10.) The Tree of Life
It's definitely a film that could be at the top of voters' lists, but I can't imagine it'll be on enough ballots. Far too divisive.
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