Christopher Plummer is feeling like the only sure thing
for Best Supporting Actor in this year's Oscar race.
Is it just me or is this year's Best Supporting Actor race both very muddled and very weak? Looking at the last few years, this seems to consistently be one of the strongest categories. Just look at the last four winners: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds), and Christian Bale (The Fighter). I dare you to tell me one of those performances was weak.
This year, nothing stands out. I mean nothing. Albert Brooks was decent in Drive, but I really wasn't wowed the same way others were. Same with Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Ides of March. Don't get me wrong: I liked these performances. But neither jumped out as a potential winner, nor do I think they deserve to. My favorite supporting actor performance so far is Viggo Mortensen for A Dangerous Method, but I think it's safe to say that's not happening.
Christopher Plummer, it seems, could win by default. I'll be catching Beginners next week, I think, so I can chime on the performance's quality then, but despite a lot of good words written about his work here, I think the Oscar buzz might have more to do with the actor than the performance, a phenomenon that's quite common in these supporting categories.
Of course, there are a number of performances we don't know much about yet. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has a couple—Tom Hanks, Max Von Sydow—that could make it in if the film takes off with the Academy. Maybe The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will wow us and Christopher Plummer will get in for that film instead. Armie Hammer has a very juicy role in J. Edgar and could get in as the fresh face in the bunch.
But I'm going in a different direction than most with my last prediction (my other four being Brooks, Hoffman, Plummer in Beginners, and Von Sydow). War Horse is looking stronger and stronger in my eyes as a Best Picture winner and Academy darling. So why not go with the wily Niels Arestrup, who took names in A Prophet last year? I could be totally off the reservation with this one, but like I said, there's a void out there this year for Supporting Actor, so it could be anyone's for the taking.
What do you think? Am I crazy for thinking Arestrup could get in with such little buzz right now? Is Plummer still the frontrunner? Or will the winner come from a film with better Best Picture prospects?
Finally, I've narrowed Best Picture down to the seven strongest candidates as I see them. And Best Actress sees a shakeup in light of finally seeing the exquisite Martha Marcy May Marlene. Feel free to check out the rest of my updated Academy Award predictions on the right side of the blog, and I'll be back in a week or two with another Oscar update.
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