In lieu of a lengthy post listing all of my Oscar predictions again, I'll be doing these brief, weekly updates to my predictions, which can be reflected on the right-hand side of the blog.
After it's lukewarm reception in Venice, I'm removing Carnage from my predictions in all the major categories except Supporting Actor, where I think Christoph Waltz still has a shot. Kate Winslet is replaced by Keira Knightly, who seems to be the only major awards contender for the tepidly received A Dangerous Method. But with no other standouts in a seemingly weak field so far, she's got as good a chance as any. And in Best Picture, the film is replaced by Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, which I still think is a longshot due to the genre, but the reviews are hard to ignore.
The only other change is in Best Director. The Ides of March wasn't extraordinarily received in Venice, but I sense it might be the kind of film that will perform better with American critics than their European counterparts, a la Inglourious Basterds. So it's still a Best Picture contender in my eyes. But go ahead and take Clooney out of Best Director. He doesn't have much of a shot. He's replaced by Alexander Payne for The Descendants.
Back tomorrow with another edition of Festival Talk...
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