What's Changed? Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is dead, dead, dead. It's kind of a bizarre turn of events, as almost everyone waited patiently for something to happen, but general consensus is that it's just not a good film and likely won't pick up any nominations. Now, Scott Rudin's other pony in this race seems poised for big things. Could The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ride the DGA and PGA waves all the way to a Best Picture nod? I'm not onboard just yet, but it's certainly not out of the questions.
What's the Same? The seven titles that still look strongest. The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, and The Help lead the pack. Moneyball and War Horse are weaker, but still in a good position. The Tree of Life still could go either way. I'm thinking it misses out.
Best Director
What's Changed? Well, things are now more complicated. Those looking to the DGA for answers this week are scratching their heads. Rather than lock up a field, it introduced another contender for that elusive fifth slot—David Fincher. But he's got plenty of competition in former frontrunner Steven Spielberg, as well as Terrence Malick.
What's the Same? At least four of the candidates seem locked up. If Woody Allen, Michel Hazanivicius, Alexander Payne, or Martin Scorsese gets left out of the final Oscar lineup, it'll be a major shock.
Best Actor
What's Changed? Gary Oldman has fallen off the map (ditto Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy in general), with Leonardo DiCaprio being the beneficiary of his lack of support. Meanwhile, Demian Bechir's chances were resuscitated by a surprise SAG nomination.
What's the Same? The three frontrunners: Clooney, Pitt, Dujardin. I think the Best Picture race could have a major impact over who wins. If The Artist cruises, Clooney might be victorious as the "Let's give The Descendants something" philosophy takes hold.
Best Actress
What's Changed? Charlize Theron is done. Tilda Swinton looks surprisingly strong. And the race for the fifth slot looks to be between Glenn Close and Rooney Mara.
What's the Same? It's Davis vs. Streep vs. Williams. Ultimately, I expect the love for The Help to carry Davis to victory.
Best Supporting Actor
What's Changed? Max Von Sydow appears to be done, while Nick Nolte and Jonah Hill have come back strong.
What's the Same? Still a really weak category, I think, but it remains Plummer vs. Brooks with Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life) a seriously dark-horse contender that I don't feel comfortable ignoring at this point.
Best Supporting Actress
What's Changed? Vanessa Redgrave has been surprisingly absent almost all season long, which makes her road to the Oscars an major uphill climb. Meanwhile, Melissa McCarthy (completely inexplicably, in my view) has been racking up precursors left and right and very well might be recognized for her Zach Galifianakis impression in Bridesmaids.
What's the Same? Chastain, Spencer, Bejo, Woodley. I'd be quite surprised of they aren't nominated. No idea who wins at this point, but I'd guess it's Chastain.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
Win Win
Best Animated Feature
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
Rango
Rio
Best Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Project Nim
We Were Here
Best Foreign Language Feature
Declaration of War
In Darkness
Footnote
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
Best Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows—Part 2
Hugo
Jane Eyre
War Horse
Best Cinematography
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Best Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
Best Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse
Best Makeup
The Artist
Hugo
The Iron Lady
Best Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
Best Original Song
Albert Nobbs
Captain America: The First Avenger
The Help
The Muppets
The Muppets
Best Sound Editing
The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo
Rango
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Best Sound Mixing
The Adventures of Tintin
Mission: Impossible—Ghost Protocol
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows—Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
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