So, now we know what the bizarre new rules end up doing, and all the other things that were such big question marks for so long. And now the only stage of the three-month Awards Season that actually matters can begin in earnest.
Below, my thoughts on these categories, so far as I can have them at an hour before I am accustomed to being away or in any other way functional, along with my 100% non-binding gut reaction predictions for what I expect to end up winning on February 26.
For those interested in such things, of the 118 nominations I predicted, 83 came to pass; or if you roll that way, 74 of 103 not including the three short categories. One cannot express this as a straight percentage, because of those naughty Best Picture and Best Song categories, where I missed the correct number of eventual nominees. I consider this to be an unsatisfactory, but not screamingly embarrassing, record. In the Big 8, I went an awful 33/44.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will Win: The Artist
My predictions: 6/9, though I only predicted 7 total
Missed: Extremely Loud, War Horse (one of my alternates), Tree of Life (another one of my alternates)
Was anyone predicting 9? I mean, golly. And for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, too, which absolutely nobody was predicting anymore. I cannot have an opinion, given that I am seeing the film just this very afternoon, but it seems like a dubious choice. Meanwhile, I am fucking over the moon that my Tree of Life managed to scramble in there.
Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius
My predictions: 5/5
No real surprises there, but did anybody watching notice how not in any particular order they announced the names? For a second, it seemed like Allen missed out. Once again, the mere fact of Malick is enough to keep me excited in a slate that really pretty much covers the whole gamut of possibilities, quality-wise
Best Actor
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Will Win: Brad Pitt
My predictions: 3/5
Missed: Bichir, Oldman
Gary Oldman is surely a nice surprise, the best one we got in the acting categories. I guess the time has come to finally watch that A Better Life screener that I have been studiously avoiding for two months now. This is, as it has been, a death match between Pitt and Clooney, and it's hard to get very excited about it beyond that.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Will Win: Viola Davis
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: Close (my alternate)
Poor Tilda. Maybe she just needs to make another George Clooney movie, the challenging arthouse route clearly isn't going to get her there. Anyway, no real thoughts other than that last year, this category was just about as great as it has been for my entire life, and now it's pretty much solely up to my girl Viola to class up an otherwise unimpressive slate of well-meant mediocrity. Hey, just like she did in The Help!
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Will Win: Christopher Plummer
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: von Sydow
Poor Albert Brooks. That role fit in so nicely with this category's recent history, too (evil guy played in a weirdly heroic way). When people were clamoring for a surprise in this category, I don't think von Sydow was what we had in mind, but again, I haven't seen it. Hard to complain about Branagh, Nolte, or Plummer, anyway, all doing damn steady, less than career-best work.
Best Supporting Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Will Win: Jessica Chastain
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: McTeer (my alternate)
May I be petty? I am extraordinarily happy that Shailene Woodley didn't get a "welcome to Hollywood, here's your Oscar" nod for doing absolutely nothing interesting in The Descendants. A perfectly fine set of five women doing sturdy work, and my quick estimate calls this the best overall acting slate this year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants, by Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne & Jim Rash
Hugo, by John Logan
The Ides of Marc, by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willmon
Moneyball, by Stan Chervin and Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan
Will Win: The Descendants
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: Ides of March
I have a friend who had a heart attack and died at that Ides nomination. My condolences to his boyfriend and parents. Me, I'm not so put out, mostly because it's still the best George Clooney vehicle in the running. Nothing here is a shock, though Tinker Tailor is far and away the only title here that I feel very happy about inside.
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist, by Michel Hazanavicius
Bridesmaids, by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
Margin Call, by J.C. Chandoor
Midnight in Paris, by Woody Allen
A Separation, by Asghar Farhadi
Will Win: The Artist
My predictions: 3/5
Missed: Margin Call, A Separation
I know that people were predicting it, but I was absolutely not primed for the Separation nod. When they said, "Asghar Farhadi", a scream of joy went up in the Brayton home that freaked out my cat rather nicely. Of course it has no chance in hell of winning, but if it gets even one extra person to see the film, the Academy has done God's work. Best non-Tree of Life moment of the day.
A far, far better slate than Adapted, as is usually the case.
Best Cinematography
The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth)
Hugo (Robert Richardson)
The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)
War Horse (Janusz Kaminski)
Will Win: The Artist
My predictions: 5/5
Whoever ends up beating Lubezki, I hope they have the class to be gracious about it. This is, admittedly, one of the pretty slates in recent memory, though it is matched by being awfully dull (seriously, War Horse is about as nonspecific as any of the Kaminski/Spielberg collaborations outside of maybe The Terminal, which was at least a technical challenge).
Best Editing
The Artist (Anne-Sophie Bion & Michel Hazanavicius)
The Descendants (Kevin Tent)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall)
Hugo (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Moneyball (Christopher Tellefsen)
Will Win: The Artist
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Of all the places where War Horse was probably weak, this isn't the one I actually thought it would miss out. Michael Kahn is, like, Michael Kahn. Regardless, it's hard to get all that exercised about a category that so often plays as "Best Picture Gets Another Oscar", and to point out that e.g. The Descendants is not in any way compellingly cut together in a year that The Tree of Life and Margaret, to name two of many possibilities, both existed.
Best Art Direction
The Artist (Laurence Bennett; Robert Gould)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Stuart Craig; Stephenie McMillan)
Hugo (Dante Ferretti; Francesca Lo Schiavo)
Midnight in Paris (Anne Seibel; Hélène Dubreuil)
War Horse (Rick Carter; Lee Sandales)
Will Win: Hugo
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: Midnight in Paris
If I had to pick the one I thought was vulnerable, it sure as hell would have been War Horse. That is true of many categories this morning, actually. In retrospect, though, this was an easy get for Midnight. As for the rest of it: a pretty obvious set, no real clinkers, and dismayingly "more"-ish, as is typical of this category.
Best Costume Design
Anonymous (Lisy Christl)
The Artist (Mark Bridges)
Hugo (Sandy Powell)
Jane Eyre (Michael O'Connor)
W.E. (Arianne Phillips)
Will Win: Hugo
My predictions: 5/5
Wait, I seriously went 5/5 here? Y'all, W.E. was kind of a joke. I haven't seen the film, so there's that, but... wow. Also: Oscar Nominated Film About That Murdering, Drunken Glover's Son. I can just see the DVD cover now.
Best Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
Will Win: The Iron Lady
My predictions: 2/3
Missed: Albert Nobbs
Shit. I had that set of three until less than two hours before publishing my predictions. So now we know, failing entirely to make Janet McTeer look like a man (it's as glaring a make-up flaw, in its own way, as the mummification of Armie Hammer in J. Edgar) can net you an Oscar nomination.
Best Score
The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams)
The Artist (Ludovic Bource)
Hugo (Howard Shore)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alberto Iglesias)
War Horse (John Williams)
Will Win: War Horse
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: Tinker Tailor
All in all, it's a touch on the obvious side other than Iglesias, whose really fine work never took center stage but added so much to the texture of the movie. I also really do kind of love the Tintin score, and The Artist is damned impressive as a feat of endurance, even if it's not the most stirring bit of music to come down the block. A solid enough set, I guess.
Best Song
From The Muppets: "Man or Muppet"
From Rio: “Real in Rio"
Will Win: "Man or Muppet"
My predictions: 0/2, I had predicted 3
Missed: The whole damn thing
Would somebody please remind me why this award is given out?
Best Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will Win: War Horse
My predictions: 2/5
Missed: Girl w/Dragon, Hugo, Moneyball
No real surprise there - the second that the Cinema Audio Society announced their nomination, I knew that I'd completely muffed this category in my predictions. Maybe not quite in this direction (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), but what goes on in the sound branch's head during nominations is one of the odder mysteries of the Oscars.
Best Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will Win: War Horse
My predictions: 2/5
Missed: Drive, Girl w/Dragon, Hugo
Case in point. This is the sole nomination for Drive?
Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: Real Steel
Real Steel. Oscar Nominee Real Steel. Not Tree of Life. Not Captain America. Not even Pirates: On Stranger Tides. Real Steel.
...at least it's not the song from motherfucking Rio.
Best Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Will Win: Rango
My predictions: 3/5
Missed: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita
Never would I ever have guessed they'd plump for two weird little foreign nominees, but at least it kept Rio or Cars 2 - Pixar's first snub! - from getting any traction. Meanwhile, even though 3/5 is nothing at all to crow about, I am satisfied to have been so relatively alone in calling the Tintin snub.
Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Will Win: In Darkness
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: Bullhead
I've seen precisely one of these, and it's a work of consummate genius. I will not speak of the category otherwise, for fear of saying anything spectacularly ignorant.
Best Documentary
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Will Win: Pina
My predictions: 2/5
Missed: If a Tree Falls, Pina, Undefeated (my alternate)
The Project Nim snub actually makes sense, and here's why: no filmmaker who isn't named Michael Moore has ever been nominated in this category after winning it. Also, Project Nim isn't, like, all that great, though it is way the hell better than If a Tree Falls. I haven't seen most of this category, so I shouldn't say anything else at present.
Best Documentary Short Subject
"The Barber of Birmingham"
"God is the Bigger Elvis"
"Incident in New Baghdad"
"Saving Face"
"The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom"
Will Win: "Saving Face"
My predictions: 3/5
Missed: "God is the Bigger Elvis", "Saving Face" (my alternate)
There's not really a whole hell of a lot you can say about the short categories, when you haven't seen any of the nominees.
Best Live-Action Short Subject
"Pentecost"
"Raju"
"The Shore"
"Time Freak"
"Tuba Atlantic"
Will Win: "Pentecost"
My predictions: 2/5
Missed: "Raju", "The Shore", "Tuba Atlantic"
Ditto.
Best Animated Short Subject
"Dimanche"
"The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore"
"La Luna"
"A Morning Stroll"
"Wild Life"
Will Win: "La Luna"
My predictions: 4/5
Missed: "Dimanche" (my alternate)
Double ditto.
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