I'll be doing something a little different this time. Below are 25 films (in alphabetical order) that look like they could be players in the 2011 Oscars, in one way or another. I'll give you the categories I think they at least stand a fighting chance in. No doubt some of them will flame out, but this is how things look from my vantage point just before the calendar turns to December. And for full predictions in all the categories (expect the shorts), check out the sidebar down the right of the page.
127 Hours
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Original Score
Decent Chance: Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire follow-up has opened well and is still looking like a major Oscar player. Will Academy members be able to overcome the film's infamous amputation scene and give it a win? We'll have to wait and see on that, but my guess is that the nominations will be this film's reward.
Alice in Wonderland
Solid Bet: Best Art Direction, Best Makeup
Decent Chance: Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Let's get one thing straight: No matter how much money this film has made, no matter how much money is pumped into its campaign, this film won't be nominated for Best Picture. Below-the-line categories? It will pick up its fair share of nods. But that's it.
Another Year
Solid Bet: Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress
Decent Chance: Best Original Screenplay, Best Picture
127 Hours
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Original Score
Decent Chance: Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire follow-up has opened well and is still looking like a major Oscar player. Will Academy members be able to overcome the film's infamous amputation scene and give it a win? We'll have to wait and see on that, but my guess is that the nominations will be this film's reward.
Alice in Wonderland
Solid Bet: Best Art Direction, Best Makeup
Decent Chance: Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Let's get one thing straight: No matter how much money this film has made, no matter how much money is pumped into its campaign, this film won't be nominated for Best Picture. Below-the-line categories? It will pick up its fair share of nods. But that's it.
Another Year
Solid Bet: Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress
Decent Chance: Best Original Screenplay, Best Picture
Long Shot: Best Director, Best Supporting Actor
The Lesley Manville question is shaping up to be one of the most important and interesting of the Oscar season. There are many out there who will say this isn't even worth writing about. She's lead. Case closed. I think Sony Pictures Classics will smell blood in the water of the Best Supporting Actress category. She can win that category easily, so why wouldn't they at least try to campaign her there? I haven't seen the film, but I hear she straddles the lead/supporting line quite closely.
Black Swan
Solid Bet: Best Actress
Decent Chance: Best Director, Best Picture
Long Shot: Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Supporting Actress
Everyone knows Portman is in, and it looks like she's got a really good shot at winning. I also think Darren Aronofsky might get acknowledged in what looks like a somewhat weak Best Director category. Best Picture? I'm still not sold yet, though it's my number 11 right now.
Blue Valentine
Decent Chance: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay
Long Shot: Best Picture
Long Shot: Best Picture
Oddly enough, I think this film's controversial NC-17 rating might actually help it (people will be curious, I'm sure). But it still might be too small to get any real Oscar recognition. I've got it in two major categories right now--Best Actress for Michelle Williams and Best Original Screenplay--but there's a chance it might be shut out completely.
Conviction
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actor
Long Shot: Best Actress
This one is sliding and sliding further into obscurity with every update. I think Sam Rockwell still has a shot--it seems like precisely the kind of story the Academy would eat up--but as of this update, Conviction is shut out.
Fair Game
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actor
Long Shot: Best Actress
What I said about Conviction.
The Fighter
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress (Adams)
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actress (Leo), Best Cinematography, Best Editing
Long Shot: Best Actor, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay
Now that the film has finally screened, I think it's safe to say this one is in. It sounds like Bale is a threat to win, and Adams is getting some of the best marks of her career. After that, I think it depends on how popular the film is, both with audiences and the Academy.
Get Low
Solid Bet: Best Actor
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actress, Best Costume Design
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay
I'm happy Robert Duvall is hanging on strong after the film opened somewhat weakly over the summer. I'm not sure about the film's other prospects, but it remains an intriguing possibility in several categories, including the wide-open Best Supporting Actress.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Solid Bet: Best Visual Effects
Decent Chance: Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction
One of the best films in the long-running series is likely to be a player in some below-the-line categories this year, but nothing else.
How to Train Your Dragon
Solid Bet: Best Animated Feature
Decent Chance: Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Picture
Dreamworks is going all out for its critical and popular smash from early this year. I don't think it will be able to make it into Best Picture, however, with Toy Story 3 stealing so much of its thunder.
Inception
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects
Decent Chance: Best Art Direction, Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress
Another one of this year's most intriguing stories, Inception could either be the year's most recognized film or its biggest Oscar disappointment. It should be just fine in the tech categories, and I still think it's solid for Picture/Director, but I wouldn't be surprised if things change in the next few weeks. Stay tuned.
The Kids Are All Right
Solid Bet: Best Actress (Bening), Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay
Decent Chance: Best Picture, Best Actress (Moore)
Long Shot: Best Director
An actor's picture, through and through, this film is still hanging on strong since its summer release. I think Bening has a solid chance at winning.
The King's Speech
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Art Direction, Best Costume Design
Decent Chance: Best Makeup, Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Cinematography, Best Editing
It's the frontrunner right now, and judging by how many "solid bets" I'm giving the film right now, I think it might be an across-the-board sweep on Oscar night.
Made in Dagenham
Decent Chance: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress
Long Shot: Best Costume Design
I'm surprised this film isn't performaning all that well. It seems like a pure crowd-pleaser. But if it ends up being a box office bust, don't look for much in the line of nominations. Even Miranda Richardson, a former lock, seems vulnerable.
Rabbit Hole
Solid Bet: Best Supporting Actress
Decent Chance: Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor
The buzz is still quiet--maybe a little too quiet at this stage. But very strong reviews and a couple critics prizes for the film/Kidman could mean very good things going into next year.
Secretariat
Decent Chance: Best Costume Design, Best Editing
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
I actually don't have Disney's film in any of my predictions, but it's got a chance in a number of mostly smaller categories. Picture and Actress (for Diane Lane) seem out at this point.
Shutter Island
Solid Bet: Best Art DirectionConviction
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actor
Long Shot: Best Actress
This one is sliding and sliding further into obscurity with every update. I think Sam Rockwell still has a shot--it seems like precisely the kind of story the Academy would eat up--but as of this update, Conviction is shut out.
Fair Game
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actor
Long Shot: Best Actress
What I said about Conviction.
The Fighter
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress (Adams)
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actress (Leo), Best Cinematography, Best Editing
Long Shot: Best Actor, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay
Now that the film has finally screened, I think it's safe to say this one is in. It sounds like Bale is a threat to win, and Adams is getting some of the best marks of her career. After that, I think it depends on how popular the film is, both with audiences and the Academy.
Get Low
Solid Bet: Best Actor
Decent Chance: Best Supporting Actress, Best Costume Design
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay
I'm happy Robert Duvall is hanging on strong after the film opened somewhat weakly over the summer. I'm not sure about the film's other prospects, but it remains an intriguing possibility in several categories, including the wide-open Best Supporting Actress.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Solid Bet: Best Visual Effects
Decent Chance: Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction
One of the best films in the long-running series is likely to be a player in some below-the-line categories this year, but nothing else.
How to Train Your Dragon
Solid Bet: Best Animated Feature
Decent Chance: Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Picture
Dreamworks is going all out for its critical and popular smash from early this year. I don't think it will be able to make it into Best Picture, however, with Toy Story 3 stealing so much of its thunder.
Inception
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects
Decent Chance: Best Art Direction, Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress
Another one of this year's most intriguing stories, Inception could either be the year's most recognized film or its biggest Oscar disappointment. It should be just fine in the tech categories, and I still think it's solid for Picture/Director, but I wouldn't be surprised if things change in the next few weeks. Stay tuned.
The Kids Are All Right
Solid Bet: Best Actress (Bening), Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay
Decent Chance: Best Picture, Best Actress (Moore)
Long Shot: Best Director
An actor's picture, through and through, this film is still hanging on strong since its summer release. I think Bening has a solid chance at winning.
The King's Speech
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Art Direction, Best Costume Design
Decent Chance: Best Makeup, Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Cinematography, Best Editing
It's the frontrunner right now, and judging by how many "solid bets" I'm giving the film right now, I think it might be an across-the-board sweep on Oscar night.
Made in Dagenham
Decent Chance: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress
Long Shot: Best Costume Design
I'm surprised this film isn't performaning all that well. It seems like a pure crowd-pleaser. But if it ends up being a box office bust, don't look for much in the line of nominations. Even Miranda Richardson, a former lock, seems vulnerable.
Rabbit Hole
Solid Bet: Best Supporting Actress
Decent Chance: Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor
The buzz is still quiet--maybe a little too quiet at this stage. But very strong reviews and a couple critics prizes for the film/Kidman could mean very good things going into next year.
Secretariat
Decent Chance: Best Costume Design, Best Editing
Long Shot: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
I actually don't have Disney's film in any of my predictions, but it's got a chance in a number of mostly smaller categories. Picture and Actress (for Diane Lane) seem out at this point.
Shutter Island
Decent Chance: Best Cinematography
Long Shot: Best Actor, Best Original Score
The February release date just kills it. Technical features were amazing, but it still just feels like the forgotten contender this year.
The Social Network
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing
Decent Chance: Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor (x2), Best Original Score, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Long Shot: Best Cinematography
I'd say the film is running third right now, but there's no reason why critics prizes can't move it up in the race. Still, I like Fincher's and Sorkin's chances a lot.
The Town
Decent Chance: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
Long Shot: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing
This is probably the toughest film to peg because I don't think it's a sure thing in any categories, but it could wind up scoring big in many categories.
Toy Story 3
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Feature
Decent Chance: Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Director, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing
Believe it or not, I think this film might be The King's Speech biggest challenger for the Best Picture win. Without another sure thing that people seem to adore, they might just say it's Pixar's time to shine.
TRON: Legacy
Solid Bet: Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual EffectsDecent Chance: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
Long Shot: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing
This is probably the toughest film to peg because I don't think it's a sure thing in any categories, but it could wind up scoring big in many categories.
Toy Story 3
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Feature
Decent Chance: Best Original Score
Long Shot: Best Director, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing
Believe it or not, I think this film might be The King's Speech biggest challenger for the Best Picture win. Without another sure thing that people seem to adore, they might just say it's Pixar's time to shine.
TRON: Legacy
Looks to be a feast for the eyes, ears, and not much else.
True Grit
Solid Bet: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Art Direction, Best Cinematography, Best Editing
Decent Chance: Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Makeup
The only major question mark still in the field is probably golden if the Coen Brothers just come out and do what they do best. Wins might be tricky, however, since it's a remake. Plus, they were awarded only three years ago for No Country for Old Men.
The Way Back
Decent Chance: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (x2), Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Makeup
Peter Weir's film's biggest obstacle is its distributor. In the hands of a studio like Fox Searchlight, I'd tend to think this would be a favorite to win it all. Newmarket, however, is going to have trouble getting people to see it. If it succeeds, it could be a major player.
Winter's Bone
Solid Bet: Best Actress
Decent Chance: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay
Long Shot: Best Supporting Actor
It's the little indie that could this year and will likely ride a wave of strong critical support to a few nominations. Jennifer Lawrence is its best chance for a victory.
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