2011 Oscar Predictions: Part 5

It's been a while since I tossed out some 2011 Oscar predictions in the major categories, so here you go. I'll be adding predictions to the tech categories later this month. An asterisk represents a new addition. All predictions are listed in order of likelihood of being nominated.

Best Picture:
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
127 Hours
Inception
Another Year
The Kids Are All Right
True Grit
The Way Back
*Winter's Bone

Winter's Bone is the new kid on the block in this category. I didn't care for the film all that much, but I think the fact that it's remained in the conversation all season long says something about the way people are reacting to it. So for now, it replaces The Fighter, which very well might make it in, but it's just the one we know the least about. Other contenders include Black Swan, The Town, Made in Dagenham, and Rabbit Hole.

Best Director:
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Mike Leigh, Another Year

No change in this category, and I still think the biggest threat from the outside is Peter Weir for The Way Back because he's been nominated without a win so many times and because his film appears to be very grand and large-scale. Other contenders include The Coen Brothers (True Grit), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), David O. Russell (The Fighter), and Debra Granik (Winter's Bone).

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low

Another category without a change, though it pains me to say that I think Robert Duvall is hanging on by a thread. There's just no heat behind him right now, and I think Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), and Javier Bardem (Biutiful) all stand a solid chance at knocking the veteran out of his slot.

Best Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
*Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
*Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

Here's where this update really begins to differ from my last. First, I've added Jennifer Lawrence. My gut told me that in a year with such a deep field, she'd be left out because she was so new to the scene. I can't ignore her any longer, and whatever qualms I had about the film, she certainly was not one of them. The other major shakeup was the replacement of Lesley Manville. No matter what the folks running her campaign are saying, I think when push comes to shove, they'll smell blood in Best Supporting Actress, and the chance for victory will push her over to that category. Her replacement is another Brit, Sally Hawkins. Other contenders include Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine), Diane Lane (Secretariat), and Naomi Watts (Fair Game).

Best Supporting Actor:
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Sam Rockwell, Conviction
*Ed Harris, The Way Back

Ed Harris enters the race simply because I think if The Way Back gets a Best Picture nomination, it's got to have support elsewhere. He replaces Andrew Garfield, who may be too new on the scene in a category where veterans tend to rule. Other candidates include Sean Penn (Fair Game), Justin Timberlake (The Social Network), Vincent Cassell (Black Swan), Matt Damon (True Grit) and Jeremy Renner (The Town).

Best Supporting Actress:
*Lesley Manville, Another Year
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
*Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

As I said earlier, I think the wide open nature of this category will draw Lesley Manville from lead to supporting. Perhaps not, but for this update, that's what I'm going with. That news would theoretically be great for Dianne Wiest because three of her strongest competitors (Manville, Miranda Richardson, and Helena Bonham Carter) would be British and could split votes. I gave the last slot to Jacki Weaver for reasons similiar to my inclusion of Jennifer Lawrence. Her performance in a very small film has been hanging on all year long, which means she's getting a great push and people are talking about her. I think we can count out the For Colored Girls ladies with the terrible reviews that film has been getting, so the other contenders are pretty thin, but I'd say Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Amy Adams (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), and Barbara Hershey (Black Swan) are still in the race.