Festival Talk: Part 3

I planned to do more of these posts, but it seems like a very quiet TIFF. Am I the only one who thinks that?

Anyway, Moneyball appears to be the big winner there. I'm still not convinced, frankly, as I think it might struggle to find an audience and might lose out to The Help as the Academy's "populist" pick. But it's certainly in the mix, as is Brad Pitt for Best Actor.

Beyond that, it's mostly the strong getting stronger. The Descendants is getting praise from anyone and everyone, as is The Artist. Those two appear to be the Best Picture frontrunners among the films that have screened so far. Of course, with War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, and J. Edgar (among others) still up in the air, anything is possible.

As far as smaller films go, Shame is picking up a lot of fans. I think that (plus a big push from Fox Searchlight) could translate to a Best Actor nod for Michael Fassbender, but that would be a big step for the Academy, and I'm not exactly comfortable predicting something like that at this moment. But he'd be my sixth choice in the category right now (just behind Pitt who's replacing Tom Hardy after Warrior's tepid box office last weekend).

As far as Best Actress is concerned, it seems like a quiet race right now, no? Glenn Close is still being tossed about, but I'm not sure about a win at this stage. There are a number of potential first-time actresses who could be interchangeable as far as their chances are concerned: Elizabeth Olsen, Rooney Mara, Felicity Jones, even Kirsten Dunst. There's Tilda Swinton, whose We Need to Talk about Kevin might be too small for the push she'll need. There's Charlize Theron for a film (Young Adult) that I don't know what to make of. But out of TIFF came word of Michelle Yeoh in The Lady, a biopic of Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. She's getting good word of mouth in what sounds like a very baity role. She's not in my top five right now, but she, like Fassbender, is very close.

So we'll see what happens. I'll be back to wrap up the major festival coverage, but for now, take a look at my updated Oscar predictions and let me know what you think. Does Drive have a legit Best Picture shot? How about The Tree of Life? And what unseen film do you think has the best shot of breaking through and winning it all?