Box Office and The Oscars

True Grit—$112 million
Black Swan—$63 million
The Fighter—$59 million
The King’s Speech—$34 million

Something weird is going on. All the big box office hits this holiday season are adult-skewing, Oscar-baity films. And some of them—True Grit and Black Swan—are decidedly uncommercial for a number of reasons. So why are these films so big? And what, if any, impact will their successes have on the Oscar race?

The biggest factor in these films successes has to be the just abysmal quality of the end-of-year big-studio releases. Yogi Bear? Gulliver’s Travels? Little Fockers? Was anyone clamoring to see this shit? Clearly not. Instead, moviegoers are taking chances on these critically-acclaimed films with good word-of-mouth.

True Grit is an interesting case because the message of the film is definitely upbeat, and the storytelling method is straightforward. But it is a Western—supposedly a dead genre—and it doesn’t feature any major box office draws. I guess timing is everything in this film’s case. As the year went on, and film after film bombed, there was a void at the top of the marketplace. I just never thought that void would be filled by the Coens.

Black Swan is a total mystery to me. I’ve seen it twice now—both theaters were packed, and both showings had a number of walkouts. I had been so hesitant all year to put it in my Best Picture predictions because it looked so bizarre, but now, it’s a lock, and people are lining up to see it. It’s one of the biggest stories of the year.

The Fighter and The King’s Speech, I guess, are a little less surprising. One is a star-studded, very uplifting boxing flick. It doesn’t take any major chances, and it features plenty of great acting. The King’s Speech is the ultimate crowd-pleaser. It’s hard not to respond to this film on at least some level. I think the only obstacle it could have faced is a busy marketplace, but the dearth of bigger films has opened up some screens for Tom Hooper’s films all over the country.

It’s ironic and a little sad to me that the box office at the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011 has been defined mostly by these prestige pictures, yet two of my favorite films of the year—127 Hours and Rabbit Hole—have gotten lost in the shuffle. Things can change when Oscar nominations come in, but my gut feeling is these are two films that will continue to be ignored, and that’s a shame.

Speaking of Oscar nominations, it has to be pointed out the impact these film’s box office numbers will have on the race. True Grit, I think, will get in solely because of its box office. It’s a film that everyone in the film community seems to like, but I think few are calling it one of the best of the year. Black Swan went from divisive fringe candidate to lock in the Best Picture category. The Fighter and The King’s Speech were locks already, but their chances of winning are only being improved. And it’s also worth pointing out The Town and the strong impact of its box office on its chances of making it into the top 10.

Ultimately, is money the deciding factor? Of course not—The Hurt Locker proved that last year when it took down Avatar. But there’s no denying that a successful run in theaters can change voters’ perception of a film. Poor numbers can make them forget a film, and great numbers and word-of-mouth will keep a film on their radar longer. This year is an interesting case. The one thing I hope comes of it is a willingness to give these kinds of high-quality, awards-caliber motion pictures the chance they deserve to thrive in the marketplace. But we’ll have to wait and see what happens in 2011.